How MorMurdoch is thinking U.S. Support for Israel Could Accelerate Nuclear Proliferation

I think Trump revealed the United States' hand; that is, he exposed the political and economic costs that serve as barriers to launching land invasions. He showed our adversaries that we are unlikely to put boots on the ground unless there is a perceived existential threat or a personal grudge, whether genuine or redirected toward a manufactured enemy.

As a result, the USA's adversaries' incentive may now be to acquire nuclear weapons as a deterrent against airstrikes and intervention by sea or air.

I do not think the United States should have sacrificed its aura for Israel. To prevent another country from acquiring nuclear weapons, the United States would likely need to conduct a land invasion or resort to using tactical nuclear weapons. If it cannot generate sufficient public support for such a war, it may be unable to do either.

Siding with Israel makes it much harder to build public support for military intervention because of the perception that Israel is committing genocide. Personally, it appears to me that Israel is committing genocide, as defined by the term, out of concern that allowing a fully open democracy would fundamentally change the country as its leaders envision it, namely a theocratic state. If the proportion of non-Jewish people in the government were to become large enough to take control, Israel would become a vastly different state that would no longer align with their desired political & cultural vision.

Israel's actions could contribute to nuclear proliferation by creating new adversaries or pushing countries such as Turkey into adversarial relationships. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/its-time-to-get-us-nukes-out-of-turkey/

Without an overwhelming technological advantage, the United States is unlikely to be able to overcome the significant geographic advantages enjoyed by some of its manufactured adversaries like Iran.

Siding with Israel is a mistake.

It could even become a Great Filter for humanity. If the world's greatest power aligns itself with a country that has what I view as an entrenched/inherent persecution complex, the United States government could end up creating more & more adversaries than they're are capable of confronting simultaneously or sequentially.

Representative Adam Smith on U.S.-Israel Relations, Defense Policy, and Democratic Party Challenges

MoribundMurdoch's Reaction:

I'm quite anti-Israeli-government, but Krystal really didn't make her case very well here. This was painful to watch. I might just be especially allergic to democratic-socialist-style framing. Maybe it lands better with her crowd. That said, I'm not a fan of sanctions on any country, regardless of regime. She'd agree with me on Cuba, yet she's a hypocrite on Israel. Not great for anyone who claims to be principled or cares about innocent populations. Also instead of truly addressing the obvious problems with the current democratic socialism like open borders, modern monetary theory, etc. she quickly pivots.

Summary

Representative Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, offers a nuanced perspective on today's most pressing political issues. He dives into the complexities of U.S. defense policy, Israel-Palestine relations, and the ongoing divisions within the Democratic Party. Notably, Smith explains his journey from supporting to opposing a National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) provision for enhanced U.S.-Israeli military co-development, a shift driven by deep concerns over the current Israeli government's policies and the broader political climate.

While strongly defending Israel's right to exist, Smith is candid about the aggressive posture of the Netanyahu administration, particularly regarding Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Taking a firm stance, he supports sanctions against extremist Israeli officials. He even voted for an amendment to block specific U.S. aid to Israel as a direct political message to its leadership, fully aware of the potential backlash from influential pro-Israel groups like AIPAC.

Turning to Democratic Party dynamics, Smith critiques both sides of the aisle. He challenges the left for pushing policies like open borders, defunding the police, and unchecked deficit spending. Simultaneously, he calls out the establishment for inadequate economic reforms and poor messaging that contributed to electoral losses against Donald Trump. Instead, Smith advocates for practical governance. He expresses sympathy for economic populism and targeted socialist policies focused on real-world results, praising pragmatic figures and emphasizing the necessity of realistic solutions over ideological purity.

On domestic policy, Smith clarifies his past efforts to abolish ICE. His goal is not to eliminate immigration enforcement entirely, but rather to enact meaningful administrative reform. He stresses the critical need for robust, transparent border enforcement that is carefully balanced with humanitarian considerations.

Finally, Smith calls for stronger congressional oversight of the executive branch, especially concerning defense and foreign policy. He champions the limitation of large independent expenditure money in elections from influential groups like AIPAC, despite acknowledging the steep challenges of campaign finance reform. Even after losing AIPAC's financial backing due to his shifting stances, Smith remains open to dialogue. He firmly rejects the idea of excluding socialist voices from the Democratic Party, advocating instead for a broad coalition built on respectful, wide-ranging conversations.

Highlights

• Shift on US-Israel Military Policy: Representative Adam Smith reversed his stance on NDAA Section 224, ultimately opposing US-Israel military co-development due to ongoing concerns with the Israeli government.
• Critique of Netanyahu: While firmly defending Israel's right to exist, Smith strongly condemns the Netanyahu administration for its aggressive policies and continued expansionism in Palestinian territories.
• Conditioning Foreign Aid: He supported blocking specific US aid to Israel as a direct protest against the government's current trajectory and to signal opposition to officials advocating for ethnic expulsion.
• Defense Oversight: Smith underscores the critical need for robust congressional oversight in defense policy to counter executive overreach and navigate political gridlock.
• Pragmatic Economics: Championing practical governance over ideological purity, he expresses openness to economic populism and targeted socialist policies that yield realistic solutions.
• Immigration Reform: He advocates for abolishing ICE as a standalone agency, proposing instead that immigration enforcement be restructured under the purview of the Department of Justice.
• Democratic Party Cohesion: Critiquing illiberal activism on the left, Smith calls for a return to civil discourse, respectful dialogue, and strategic coalition-building within the Democratic Party.

Key Insights

• NDAA Section 224 & U.S.-Israel Military Cooperation: Balance of Military Innovation & Political Accountability

  Smith clarifies the provision focuses on co-development, especially missile defense, leveraging Israeli expertise without merging militaries or circumventing Congressional oversight. His shift away from support reflects the tension between strengthening defense capabilities and political realities of U.S. relations with an increasingly controversial Israeli government. This underscores how defense policy can intersect with broader ethical and accountability concerns, illustrating the limits of military collaboration when political leadership diverges significantly from U.S. values.

• Congressional Oversight vs. Executive Action in Defense & War Powers

  Despite opposing the NDAA due to provisions funding a war in Iran and concerns about the Israeli-related sections, Smith insists on passing the bill to maintain legislative oversight functions. This highlights the strategic dilemma faced by minority party members: withholding support risks ceding even more control to the executive branch, which may act unilaterally or illegally. It shows the complex interplay between law, policy, and practical governance in a polarized Congress.

• The Israel-Palestine Conflict: No Easy Solutions in a Grim Reality

  Smith's position affirms Israel's existential threats while acknowledging its current trajectory toward illiberalism and apartheid-like conditions. His skepticism about the viability of a two-state solution, combined with reluctance to endorse a one-state solution, reflects the profound deadlock in resolving the conflict. His analysis gives voice to an emerging bipartisan recognition that traditional frameworks for peace have failed, urging a reconsideration of U.S. aid and diplomatic strategies.

• Voting to Block Aid as Political Messaging

  Smith's vote for the Massie amendment, which aimed to block aid to Israel, signals a willingness to use Congressional power to express disapproval of Israeli policies, despite potential political costs, including loss of support from influential lobbying groups like AIPAC. This illustrates a shifting landscape where support for Israel is no longer monolithic within the Democratic Party and where foreign policy decisions increasingly reflect domestic political considerations and constituent pressures.

• Democratic Party Divides: Electability vs. Ideological Purity

  Smith provides a measured critique of both the Democratic establishment and the left-wing factions, attributing electoral defeats partly to ineffective economic policies and partly to leftist positions such as open borders and defunding the police. He frames these not only as political but substantive policy problems affecting party credibility. His stance suggests that the Democratic Party needs a pragmatic economic populist approach that blends welfare expansion with fiscal responsibility, avoiding extremes that risk alienating moderate voters.

• Immigration Enforcement Reform: Abolish ICE but Maintain Enforcement

  Smith supports abolishing ICE as an agency but clarifies that he advocates for immigration enforcement functions moving back to the Department of Justice in a reformed manner. This nuanced position counters simplistic "abolish ICE" slogans, emphasizing administrative restructuring over the elimination of enforcement, acknowledging political feasibility and governance necessities.

• The Role of Discourse & Coalition Building in Party Unity

  Smith expresses frustration with illiberal and confrontational activism on the left, including disruptions and threats at town halls, seeing it as detrimental to fostering productive political debate. He calls for respectful dialogue to overcome factionalism within the Democratic Party and improve governance, reflecting a broader concern about the rise of political polarization and its impact on democratic processes.

• Campaign Finance Reform & Influence of Independent Expenditures

  Smith criticizes the outsized influence of outside money, whether from AIPAC, big pharma, or labor unions, on elections, calling for bans on independent expenditures, especially in primaries. He recognizes constitutional and practical challenges but supports party rule changes to limit such spending where possible, framing this as essential for democratic integrity and reducing external influence on candidate selection.

• Willingness to Work Across Factions & With Former Backers

  Despite losing AIPAC support, Smith remains open to dialogue and maintains a principled stance that elected officials should vote according to their convictions, not donor preferences. He draws a line rejecting absolute separation from ideological wings within the party, promoting inclusiveness while advocating for responsible policy debate, highlighting the complexities of coalition politics in contemporary America.

Conclusion

Representative Adam Smith provides a candid, nuanced exploration of multiple contentious issues facing the Democratic Party and U.S. policy today. His pragmatic approach balances defense security needs with democratic accountability, while recognizing the hard realities of the Israel-Palestine conflict and the limits of current policy frameworks. His critique of both establishment and left elements within the party points toward the need for strategic economic populism and respectful discourse. Smith's emphasis on oversight, political messaging, and electoral viability reveals the intricate balancing act elected officials face in an era of deep partisan and ideological divides.